lifepo4

This week just gone, we not only had a state election here in Queensland, with a conservative government (LNP) returned to power… we also witnessed the US hold their federal election, and vote in a conservative party there too.

In both regions, the term supposedly is 4 years. Well, here I expect the 4 year term will be upheld… this has never been an issue before and while I do remember a time when our state parliament sat for a 3 year term, it never has been infinite.

Over in the US, there were rumblings along the lines of “we’ll fix it so you don’t have to vote anymore”. Make of that what you will.

Next year, Australia goes into federal election mode… While our mainstream conservative parties are nowhere near as right-wing as some of the minor parties (looking at you, FFP, ONP and KAP), and state politics is theoretically separate from federal, hearing Queensland LNP front-benchers contradict then opposition leader (and now Queensland Premier) David Crisafulli on issues like abortion really does feel like they’re echoing the right-wing governments overseas.

Of course, it was one of the right-wing minority party leaders, KAP’s Robbie Katter, that happened to toss that grenade into the mix… nearly de-railed the train entirely for the LNP. I think therefore this is just a taste of what we can expect next year: minor parties (especially conservative ones) throwing their smoke bombs into the debate whenever possible on all kinds of issues… and some of them drawing “inspiration” from overseas.

The previous LNP government wound up being a disagreeable mob that argued with everyone, Campbell Newman (who we had as local member here in the seat of Ashgrove) and his government were tossed out at the very next opportunity. I think they may have learned from that and will pull their heads in a bit more… we’ll see.

Their big platform was on youth crime, and their big headline remedy, “adult crime: adult time”, has been criticised as not having solved the problem anywhere else where it was attempted. There’s apparently some early intervention to try and address issues before they boil-over into major societal problems… that should have a positive influence… the efficacy of punishments though will need to be proven.

Federally… we’ve got different challenges now. The US threatening new tariffs will not only push up inflation in the US (a nice foot-gun you’ve got there, Trump), it’ll also spell trouble for Australian exporters, notably our mining operations. The rhetoric during this year seems to spell trouble for both the NATO and AUKUS alliances. If the US pulls out of these, Australia will be very isolated as the UK is on the opposite side of the planet and (thanks to Brexit) a financial basket-case.

A regression in the situation in Ukraine will make things unstable in Europe generally, if that spills over, the fact that we’ve got the UK as an ally may be meaningless as there’s a lot of ocean to cover for their aid to reach us. Closer to us is China and Taiwan, which is quietly simmering away… whilst Israel wages war with both Palestine and Lebanon.

Donald Trump’s rhetoric over the previous term does not endear a world of peace. Some have praised his manner of speaking as being “refreshing”… well it most definitely is different. Diplomacy is a game of subtle nuance. Always has been. I’m not sure shouty-shouty megaphone diplomacy will work. It didn’t work that well for Germany in the 1930s, and many today draw parallels between that time, and today’s US. The last US presidential debate between Trump and Kamala Harris gave us a pretty good peek as what we will probably get. Malcolm Turnbull’s “robust discussion” with Trump back in 2016 suggests as much too. For a few weeks I had this cartoon living rent-free in my head…

Well, world leaders and heads of state alike, will be debating the pigeon for another four years.

Next year, it’ll be our turn in Australia. Federal parties will need to balance the urban and rural needs: this is an area where Queensland’s parties failed. Labor did really well in urban seats, but failed miserably in the regions. A similar pattern was seen in the US election, with most of those in rural areas, preferring the Republican party, whilst in urban areas, Democrats were favoured.

A party should not be solely representing just the regions or just the urban centres. They are being elected to represent both. Cost of living is a big issue right now, something a third world war will not improve. A world war might mean we in Australia are isolated, and unable to import a lot of things, making every day things a lot more expensive. So encouraging local production and level-headed diplomacy will be critical.

Healthcare is a big issue in the regions, especially for specialist services. As it happens, our food and minerals do not come from the CBDs of capital cities — so we really do need to be helping out there to make life more viable. This means hospitals should be aiming to provide what their patients need, not inflicting restrictive guidelines on people who have few viable alternatives.

Climate change will affect us all, urban and rural… we can’t rely on digging up former dinosaurs to fuel everything long-term… we’ve left it a little late to be constructing big nuclear plants. While smaller options exist (small modular reactors are used quite successfully on submarines), a big honking reactor the size of Tarong is a biiiig risk in Australia’s climate.

Yes, Europe has lots of them, but Europe built nearly all those decades ago, when they were not getting massive wildfires and 40°C+ temperatures. A small reactor that we can shut down, crane onto the back of a truck, and shift out of harm’s way might be useful for propping up parts of the grid in times of need. A reactor that is too big to move is a major risk in a flood or bushfire emergency, and we have had a longer and more frequent history of these than any part of the world that currently uses nuclear. Fukushima, despite the low number of people killed as a result of the reactor (most people in that disaster lost lives due to the tsunami), is not a blueprint for how to build a large reactor in a risky area.

Battery technology isn’t ideal right now, not sure I like the idea of dealing with bushfires that are lithium-enhanced… but lithium batteries are not the only option out there for fixed installations. This blog runs on dated but still useful AGMs. There exist other storage technologies which could be viable at scale and should be considered. A former manager of mine was keen on the Zebra battery, which is a form of molten-salt battery. I couldn’t source one for him in 2008, we ended up going with LiFePO₄ cells… but there is probably wisdom in using a battery that is fine with heat.

We’re likely to see a big influx of migration over the next few years, as conflict and hatred makes the planet overall a more dangerous place. We’re hearing the phrase “your body, my choice” a lot now, a phrase no woman deserves to have levelled at them, women are more than just brood stock.

Increasingly some governments have shown transgender attitudes as well, a group that does not choose their condition any more than a baby born without eyes chooses to be blind. Everyone has challenges, and everyone deserves assistance with their challenges whatever those happen to be. We shouldn’t be discriminating against people on the basis of the (sometimes unique) challenges an individual might face.

Neurodivergence also seems to be in the cross-hairs: if that ever gets imported into Australia’s mainstream politics, yours truly will be in the cross-hairs here! I’ve faced discrimination before (looking at you Hilder Road & The Gap State Schools).

Lots of people from these marginal groups will be on the move escaping discrimination. We need to do our best to ensure the same hate movement does not rise here: these are people that have a lot to give if given the opportunity.

Circling back to health for a moment too… COVID-19 still rages on, there was a pleasing-looking trend last month in Queensland hospitalisation statistics showing COVID-19 and Influenza cases well down a month or two back. Not zero, they’re not gone… but not as bad as they once were. Sadly it won’t stay that way. Over in the US, they’re talking of giving the portfolio of health to Robert F. Kennedy Jr, someone who seems keen to continue grinding Andrew Wakefield’s axe, and seems to be very much against current preventative measures for containing contagious disease. With H5N1 (bird flu) rearing its ugly head, the never really dealt-with and worsening COVID-19 situation over there, and diseases we thought we had beat like polio making a come-back… we may see some particularly nasty bugs hit our shores. Get ready for Pandemic 2.0.

So a lot in store for the next 4 years at least… I think Europe is going to play a major role in the medium term. They are already showing a lot of leadership over technical standards (we can thank the EU for universal charges on portable devices for example). Whilst it’s not all good news there (end-to-end encryption being a controversial issue), on balance they seem to be headed in a better direction than the US is right now. Here’s hoping cooler heads prevail and things settle down, but right now I think we need to buckle up for a bumpy ride!